tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post5681446377792201354..comments2024-03-28T15:05:33.781+13:00Comments on Economics New Zealand: John Quiggin's keynote addressDonal Curtinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03687495556590450225noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-25279618985630512272013-07-17T11:18:23.139+12:002013-07-17T11:18:23.139+12:00Thanks for this. I agree with you that there doesn...Thanks for this. I agree with you that there doesn't seem to be any single predominant explanation of the gap that widened between NZ and Australia, and people are still beavering away at a cluster of possibilities. You might be interested in the papers presented at the recent Productivity Symposium (July 2) in Wellington, which had another look at the spectrum of possible reasons. I summarised them at http://economicsnz.blogspot.co.nz/2013/07/todays-symposium-on-unpicking-new.html.<br />The papers themselves are at http://www.productivity.govt.nz/event/unpicking-new-zealand%E2%80%99s-productivity-paradox-symposiumDonal Curtinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03687495556590450225noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-58246555424995023052013-07-12T17:35:40.207+12:002013-07-12T17:35:40.207+12:00A final point. I said in my response to a question...A final point. I said in my response to a question, and in my paper with Tim Hazledine, that no single explanation is sufficient to explain NZ's decline relative to Australia. The gap is too large to be explained by either of bad luck (terms of trade shocks, slightly more isolated location) or bad management (bad micro and macro policy), taken alone. <br /><br />My point was that, if recessions have long-lasting effects, a significant part of the gap (but not all) can be explained by the fact that NZ had a string of recessions when Australia did not, as well as by bad micro policies <br /><br />I haven't seen anyone give a quantitatively convincing terms-of-trade or other 'bad luck' explanation of the decline, but feel free to point me in the right direction.John Quigginhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10830215234726229924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-39798046883390352542013-07-09T17:45:47.884+12:002013-07-09T17:45:47.884+12:00I did supply my presentation, and Seamus is welcom...I did supply my presentation, and Seamus is welcome to post thatJohn Quigginhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10830215234726229924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-64586776225670609132013-07-09T14:36:51.461+12:002013-07-09T14:36:51.461+12:00"He argued that fiscal policy in response to ..."He argued that fiscal policy in response to the GFC was 'missing in action', more concerned about medium-term fiscal balance than helping troubled economies in the here and now."<br /><br />This is a misreading of a point I made in discussion. I was referring to the pre-GFC orthodoxy on the role of fiscal policy, which was to aim for medium-term balance.<br /><br />Also, as I said quite a few times, I find no value in the distinction between central banks that have an announced formal inflation target, and those (eg the Fed until recently) that regularly refer to a range with with which they are comfortable. In practical terms, all central banks in developed countries pursued inflation targets from the early 1990s.John Quigginhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10830215234726229924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-43635479710700509342013-07-06T21:22:04.860+12:002013-07-06T21:22:04.860+12:00Good manGood manDonal Curtinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03687495556590450225noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-43783822150176369942013-07-06T20:50:20.871+12:002013-07-06T20:50:20.871+12:00Donal,
We don't have formal papers that we ca...Donal,<br /><br />We don't have formal papers that we can link to for the keynote addresses, but for the first time this year, we fully recorded them with both capture of the data presentations and video of the speakers. As soon as the AV people provide us with the recordings we will put them up on the NZAE website. Seamus Hoganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06752338906486087395noreply@blogger.com