tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.comments2024-03-28T15:05:33.781+13:00Economics New ZealandDonal Curtinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03687495556590450225noreply@blogger.comBlogger475125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-68256624829362097342024-03-28T15:05:33.781+13:002024-03-28T15:05:33.781+13:00I take the point on not wanting to have fiscal pol...I take the point on not wanting to have fiscal policy surprise RBNZ. But the BPS could have signalled a stronger direction of travel on Core Crown expenditure as %GDP, with most of the consolidation coming B25 onward. RBNZ could work it into their forecasts and, if they wanted, adjust interest rate policy to account for it. There'd be time. Eric Cramptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-12058209956181585862022-03-22T18:58:15.111+13:002022-03-22T18:58:15.111+13:00I agree Donal. We saw during Covid that vertically...I agree Donal. We saw during Covid that vertically integrated suppliers can be very good for consumers. Both chains continued to supply the country with groceries under serious constraints due to lockdowns. One thing I would have liked the Commission to do is paint a vivid picture of what a workably competitive grocery market in New Zealand today looks like. I doubt that is is exactly like what we have now. But is would be good to tell consumer what they should be expecting from competition, before going to say why they aren't getting it and what needs to happen for them to get it.Peter Wilsonhttps://nzier.org.nz/people/peter-wilson/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-31286676464816772352021-08-10T10:02:03.946+12:002021-08-10T10:02:03.946+12:00Great summary, Donal! Great summary, Donal! Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14835615331223090342noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-53887407855428457622021-06-28T16:48:24.734+12:002021-06-28T16:48:24.734+12:00I don't like higher equilibrium net debt level...I don't like higher equilibrium net debt levels, but that isn't an argument against using debt for necessary infrastructure. That stuff can be funded in the same way that the Auckland Harbour Bridge was funded: set a bond that's paid off by user fees. Make sure there's no recourse to either central or local government if the user fees wind up being insufficient to pay off the debt. Then it shouldn't even count against prudent net debt limits. Eric Cramptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-12169439267296277922021-03-11T10:43:45.647+13:002021-03-11T10:43:45.647+13:00John Gibson at the economics forum last week made ...John Gibson at the economics forum last week made a rather important point about NZ's overall structure and that small proportions of services in GDP should mean our counterfactual economic performance would have had a smaller hit from Covid than other places because Covid hits services worse than other sectors. Which of those OECD comparitors had comparable ex-ante industrial shares of GDP?Eric Cramptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-78092109153215100582020-11-11T12:25:35.130+13:002020-11-11T12:25:35.130+13:00"Unlike the ACCC, the Commerce Commission wil..."Unlike the ACCC, the Commerce Commission will be able to take its investigations to court directly, without handing the file over to public prosecutors"<br /><br />MLEX is incorrect on this point.<br /><br />The equivalent in New Zealand would have been handing competition cases to one of the 17 regional Crown Solicitors. Instead, the legislation provides for a specialist and independent Cartel prosecutors panel, appointed by the Solicitor-General, to perform the public prosecutor role. Only panel members will be able to bring criminal cartel prosecutions. <br /><br />The Serious Fraud Office currently operates the same way. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-3571247205682357402020-09-07T15:18:27.848+12:002020-09-07T15:18:27.848+12:00Thanks for the comment - as it happens I'm a b...Thanks for the comment - as it happens I'm a big fan of Orwell and there's a copy of The Ministry of Truth on my bookshelf already Donal Curtinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03687495556590450225noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-35273385252875998562020-09-07T14:54:12.625+12:002020-09-07T14:54:12.625+12:00Kia ora,
Below is a review of Lynskey's '...Kia ora, <br />Below is a review of Lynskey's 'The Ministry of Truth'which might relate to Professor Tibole's commentary on Orwell and Huxley. Also a review of books in, as it were, the ballpark. Thanks for the review above and to Professor Tibole, Peter Cleave <br />https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=2739438702950373&id=1487263281501261<br />https://www.facebook.com/1487263281501261/videos/286407752734774Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12617102006479158975noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-77683137474699319902020-05-05T10:39:02.714+12:002020-05-05T10:39:02.714+12:00Eric Kaufmann's book Whiteshift analyses resis...Eric Kaufmann's book Whiteshift analyses resistance to immigration. Brexiters would take a 5% drop in income. Trump voters were motivated by nativism. It is about culture and values (human nature). People decide who is us and who is them and what path makes them us. A nation is a voluntary association - a social grouping. Essentially we are still a primate. In-group attraction is independent of out-group derogation. High income managerial elites have made the West "just -so" for themselves but created a societal dead zone for the majority ethnic group.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15607028751724602829noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-72819754967030277772020-05-05T09:11:13.023+12:002020-05-05T09:11:13.023+12:00Who ever said the people can pull their heads in O...Who ever said the people can pull their heads in Over the Bludging claim. Really its the way of business to always get more than they really, Morally, should. And just 1 Note ALL companies NEED Us "Head pullers in" as Customers to spend our Money. If we find out they been rorting the system then I would expect for their customer numbers to Stay low for a long time to come... Because we don't like rip off artists. So NO We will NOT pull our heads in These Companies Need to stop rorting the system Pure n Simple.DavidHahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16647778739884057677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-57824409563280260072020-02-06T07:03:32.262+13:002020-02-06T07:03:32.262+13:00Thank you my Anonymous friend. As the useful link ...Thank you my Anonymous friend. As the useful link shows, the Court aims for six months from the end of a hearing (ex holidays which have indeed intervened here) so it is currently within its indicative delivery time.Donal Curtinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03687495556590450225noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-2891794055636063902020-01-22T13:19:20.729+13:002020-01-22T13:19:20.729+13:00https://www.courtsofnz.govt.nz/the-courts/supreme-...https://www.courtsofnz.govt.nz/the-courts/supreme-court/judgment-delivery-expectations Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-75506568537860378022020-01-09T12:40:52.416+13:002020-01-09T12:40:52.416+13:00Thanks for the further comment. I'm away on ho...Thanks for the further comment. I'm away on holidays at the moment but I'll look into that apparently very high turnover rate when I get back. While it is the case that labour market turnover is higher than people usually think, you're right to ask about the apparent 70% level. I'll kick the tyres at the end of the month.Donal Curtinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03687495556590450225noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-38001289220045062882020-01-07T17:46:16.724+13:002020-01-07T17:46:16.724+13:00Thanks for the link to NZ Stats LEED data. Fascina...Thanks for the link to NZ Stats LEED data. Fascinating. I have spent some time trawling through the tables. Can I make a few comments?<br /><br />The quarterly data tables were last updated in September 2018. Nothing yet for 2019<br />The total population of NZ is 4,900,000. The quarterly filled jobs are 2,100,000 for each quarter so I guess the filled jobs number is a continuing figure that flexes and is absolute.<br /><br />The quarterly lob creation number of 350,000 each quarter sums up to 1,468,000 over the last 4 quarters. Which means, on one view, on a flow basis, 70% of all jobs are turned over annually. Not possible. Of course it could also mean that it is the same 350,000 each quarter. <br /><br />I suspect it is a rolling number that flexes. The NZ Stats presentation is doubtful without any explanation of how it is compiled, where it comes from, and what it means. Otherwise it is simply another macro number.<br /><br />Based on Immigration NZ data which is collated by MBIE, there were 466,113 people on migrant, residency and work visas in this country at the end of August 2019<br /><br />Most of the creation and destruction of jobs are in the following 3 sectors with a turnover of 30%. All the other industrial sectors are at or around 10% thus the averaging process including these 3 sectors bring the job loss up to 14%<br />Agriculture, Accommodation+Food Services, Admin+Support Services<br /><br />Started to go through the Productivity Report. I Gave up after a while when I ran into the jargon and buzz-words that I had to pause and look up. Never heard of before. ie Mediated Platforms. Really.<br /><br />The topic I was looking for was "mobility of labour" particularly in Auckland. I suspect that 400,000 work visas coupled with the effect of extremely high rental prices (in Auckland) and the impact of work visas in the hospitality industry crowding into the Auckland market. <br /><br />Talking about Auckland ... there is a direct relationship between where you live and where you can find a job that pays enough to make it economically worthwhile making the journey each day. Someone living in Laingholm Southwest of Titirangi would have to think long and hard about taking a job in East Tamaki<br /><br /><br />NZ Herald - Rangitoto announces it is forced to build teacher housing on campus canibalising school sports fields<br />Rangitoto College build subsidised housing for teachers<br />http://beta.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11868150<br /><br />And now <br />NZ Herald reveals Rangitoto College to provide subsidised accommodation to migrant teachers to get them here and then get them to stay here<br />Rangitoto College - Subsidising rents for new teachers from overseas<br />http://beta.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11867471<br />https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11867471<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-40577931135649341742019-12-30T17:06:34.245+13:002019-12-30T17:06:34.245+13:00Thanks for following! As you'll have found it&...Thanks for following! As you'll have found it's mostly competition and regulation, but also economics more generally (fiscal policy, monetary policy, labour market, productivity), from what I like to think of as a socially liberal and market-friendly perspective. <br /><br />Other micro-focussed NZ sites? Tough one. If you're on Twitter you could try having a look at the Twitter feeds I follow (I'm on Twitter as @donal_curtin). You'll have to wade through a variety of other stuff (Latin, WW1 etc) but there may be people there who you might be interested in.<br /><br />Yes, there a certainly some very opinionated and partisan people out there. For balance I follow some people eg on Twitter who are not my cup of tea but are nonetheless making a respectable go at engaging (politely!) in the debate. Donal Curtinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03687495556590450225noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-28661727790066160692019-12-30T16:49:26.352+13:002019-12-30T16:49:26.352+13:00Thanks for the comment and apologies for slow repl...Thanks for the comment and apologies for slow reply, NZ over Christmas etc...<br /><br />Hear what you say about using big data, it's the way to go. To be fair Stats have been doing quite a bit of this - the CPI for example is now based on prices that were being collected already by a market research firm - and I have a vague memory (from when I was on a Stats advisory committee) that Stats may actually be doing more than other national statistical agencies. It certainly has the potential to be quicker, cheaper and (as you say) more complete than surveys with their sampling errors. Not always a walk in the park using data originally collected for other purposes, but it's got a lot of promise.<br /><br />I wouldn't go as far myself as not believing what comes out of Stats. What comes out is good and reliable. But it's not as complete or as timely as some of us would prefer (or need), esp when it comes to analysis of the business cycle when eg GDP arrives four months later (a problem with other stats agencies, too). The LEED data is also well behind the state of play (and maybe your IRD data would indeed be a lot more timely). You can see why there's a high demand for eg private sector surveys of business activity.Donal Curtinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03687495556590450225noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-84851753180948594492019-12-25T14:27:00.926+13:002019-12-25T14:27:00.926+13:00waring joined that national party and found to her...waring joined that national party and found to her surprise it was a conservative partyJim Rosehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337463816684447862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-69180051011108341132019-12-25T11:52:25.781+13:002019-12-25T11:52:25.781+13:00With regard to NZ Stats and employment ... and the...With regard to NZ Stats and employment ... and the Productivity commission ... and IRD<br /><br />In May 2018 the IRD started a pilot program for Payday Filing ... then went live in April 2019 ... which means somewhere in the IRD system the information is there to determine on a week-by-week basis the total number of people being paid if not necessarily employed, the hourly rates, the number of people who have commenced with a new employer and the number who have not worked or not been paid. (in other words have discontinued employment)<br /><br />All this is available at the press of a button - big-data is here now - and need no longer rely on NZ Stats surveys and extrapolations<br /><br />I don't believe half of what comes out of NZ Statstwo otherguyshttp://twitter.com/two_otherguysnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-84572034623663463162019-12-25T11:40:44.106+13:002019-12-25T11:40:44.106+13:00A year or so ago I google-searched for some curren...A year or so ago I google-searched for some current-comment from some micro-economic opinions on NZ performances - but to no avail - at least I couldn't find any. The SERPs Search page results produced a proliferation of macro sites. Thus I discovered your site here. Have followed for the last few months. Other sites tend to hide behind graphs that have been averaged and smoothed and deal in totals<br /><br />I have a long-ago newspaper background wherein columnists and reporters were required to provide both sides of the topic, thus encouraging the reader to make up their own mind based on the quality of the treatise. That is not so these days. Its all opinion.<br /><br />In the interests of balance - Do you know of any quality micro-economics sites that deal with componentry of which you write.Two Otherguyshttp://twitter.com/two_otherguysnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-8193727267623160872019-12-25T11:24:44.731+13:002019-12-25T11:24:44.731+13:00So very trueSo very truetwo otherguyshttp://twitter.com/two_otherguysnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-76736481004689396442019-12-02T13:36:50.447+13:002019-12-02T13:36:50.447+13:00When the critics of rogernomics are tested, they e...When the critics of rogernomics are tested, they end up Rogernomics light. They never want to give Telecom its monopoly back or bring back the import licensing or much else of what was swept away.Jim Rosehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337463816684447862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-64382666880399203182019-09-06T14:40:16.333+12:002019-09-06T14:40:16.333+12:00Sure, that would be another way of improving on sp...Sure, that would be another way of improving on spot market rates in this kind of benchmarking comparison. Would bypass not just the non-tradables you mention but also the judgment calls that can go into PPP calculations. I'd listen to a long-term average story, too, and might even spin one myself if time was unlimited. Either way, PPP or slow moving average would be better than spot market ratesDonal Curtinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03687495556590450225noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-64157880351444503242019-09-06T13:53:33.821+12:002019-09-06T13:53:33.821+12:00Does it make more sense to use a PPP figure, which...Does it make more sense to use a PPP figure, which will weigh too-heavily the nontradeable items in a basket of goods, or a moving average smoothed exchange rate that looks to the longer term trends and ignores weird exchange rate spikes? Eric Cramptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-81391609734447174082019-08-07T15:31:27.898+12:002019-08-07T15:31:27.898+12:00It would make a pile of sense to have a lot of inf...It would make a pile of sense to have a lot of infrastructure projects in the pipeline, consented, and ready to go when/if the boil ever otherwise comes off the construction sector. <br /><br />But I just don't get the continued push by a couple of journalists to take on more debt seemingly just for the sake of it. If there's no output gap and there's possibly some overheating, it's not like a fiscal push would be pulling idle resources into production. Eric Cramptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-69163248515735089292019-07-26T06:35:34.109+12:002019-07-26T06:35:34.109+12:00Thanks for the links.Thanks for the links.NLOTeamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09504367956420730908noreply@blogger.com