tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post6532429108119434553..comments2024-03-28T15:05:33.781+13:00Comments on Economics New Zealand: The key to yesterday's Aussie BudgetDonal Curtinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03687495556590450225noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-89573041244970722822014-05-14T16:12:26.819+12:002014-05-14T16:12:26.819+12:00The previous government had already put in place m...The previous government had already put in place material consolidation measures, so the Deutsche estimate is for the marginal impact of the new government's decision. In addition, the deficit for 13/14 is exaggerated by a large payment to the RBA as additional capital, which needs to be abstracted from (ie there is no underlying fiscal tightening in 14/15 from moving from a 13/14 deficit exaggerated by that intra-government transfer, to one in 14/15 that has no such payment.Michael Reddellnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-5842135611802451072014-05-14T12:34:20.472+12:002014-05-14T12:34:20.472+12:00I haven't seen the Deutsche Bank piece but I w...I haven't seen the Deutsche Bank piece but I wonder if their numbers are right? If you use the fiscal impulse measure (on Treasury's structural balance calculations) you get a tightening of 1.8% of GDP in 2014-15, 0.9% in 2015-16 and 0.4% in 2016-17. Source data http://www.budget.gov.au/2014-15/content/bp1/html/bp1_bst3_chart_data.htm#chart10Donal Curtinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03687495556590450225noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7342528022617501525.post-17332976299571365152014-05-14T11:59:04.029+12:002014-05-14T11:59:04.029+12:00A structural deficit that last night's Budget ...A structural deficit that last night's Budget did rather little to close, at least in the term of the current government. Deutsche Bank's summary was " The net total of decisions in this Budget is to tighten fiscal policy by just 0.1%<br />of GDP in 2014-15, 0.3% of GDP in 2015-16 and 0.6% of GDP in 2016-17. A<br />very mild fiscal tightening"Michael Reddellnoreply@blogger.com